AAP’s tremendous win in the 2020 Delhi Assembly election, in fact, made the opposition camp very encouraging. Even foreign media discussed this result and considered it as Narendra Modi’s defeat. Is it really Narendra Modi’s defeat? Is this a news politics that gave Kejriwal a third term (frankly it’s a second term if we ignore the 49 days government in 2013)? Is it this the beginning of the end of Narendra Modi style politics? Is it time for Arvind Kejriwal to spearhead the anti-BJP politics even in national space?
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Such questions, expectations, and many future predictions are doing round in social media. As a neutral observer, we must decode first how AAP really won and what this election result gives the message. But before that, let’s briefly discuss Kejriwal’s politics since the beginning.
In 2013, Arvind Kejriwal began his political carrier forming a new political party ‘AAP’. The party was an outcome of very impressive anti-corruption agitation led by Anna Hazare. In its first experiment, it got 28 seats in the 2013 assembly election with a vote share of 29.5%. The reason for such an impressive performance was many folds. Sheila Dikshit, although the tallest leader of Delhi, was suffering from double anti-incumbency (15 years of Delhi government and 10 years of UPA government at center). She herself lost to newcomer Arvind Kejriwal while her party reduced to 8 seats with a vote share of 24.5% from its 2008 vote share of 40.3%. BJP maintained its vote share of 33%. That was the time when Narendra Modi entered the national polity. Thus, the default alternative was BJP. But Indian voters always vote differently in state government as well as central governments. That’s why, although people were very much keen on Narendra Modi’s candidature as Prime Minister, at the state level many wanted to try Arvind Kejriwal led AAP. Thus, there was a hung assembly.
After some initial hesitations, AAP formed the government taking outside support of Congress. Then there was an issue of ambition. Kejriwal and his colleagues thought that India is ready to accept Kejriwal as Prime Minister of India. Thus, they dissolve the assembly just after 49 days and went for general election 2014. Arvind Kejriwal contested against Narendra Modi at Varanasi and Kumar Viswas contested against Rahul Gandhi at Amethi. The public really taught the party a lesson that unless there’s performance, people are not going to give bigger responsibility. AAP didn’t get a single seat in Delhi or any other place except Punjab where it bagged just four seats. In Delhi, BJP swept all the seven seats with 46.40% vote share while AAP remains in the second position getting 32.90% whereas Congress languished with 15.10%. That was an indication for AAP leadership that they need to perform first else public is not going to give them an opportunity.
That’s why in 2015, Arvind Kejriwal apologized for quitting the Delhi government and promised to concentrate on Delhi state. People of Delhi realized that an immature Kejriwal perhaps became very ambitious. Thus, they have pardoned him and voted him to power with a landslide mandate of 67 seats with 54.3% vote share. BJP without a credible face (Kiran Bedi was para-dropped at the last moment) although maintained 32.3% vote share but managed to win just 3 seats. Congress drew a blank along with a reduced vote share of just 9.7%.
But then, Arvind Kejriwal led AAP government did start almost street fight with the BJP government at the center. The blame game, in fact, annoyed Delhi public. Because of such things Delhi people retained BJP in MCD election 2017 giving roughly 37% vote share. AAP remained second with 26% vote share whereas Congress regained some of its lost vote shares and increased it up to 21%.
AAP should have realized that time as to why people gave such a message. But that didn’t happen. Promised to do a different politics, Arvind Kejriwal deviated from his promise and started to make friends with all other anti-BJP parties such as TMC, RJD, JDS, DMK, SP, BSP and more. Kejriwal himself used strong words against Narendra Modi forgetting that a major chunk of his voters is also an admirer of Narendra Modi. Even just before general election 2019, AAP was desperate for an alliance with Congress which was finally not possible. Anyway, the 2019 general election gave a strong shock to Arvind Kejriwal. BJP again swept Delhi with 56.58% vote share which proved that even if an alliance of AAP-Congress was there, the result wouldn’t have been different. But the important development was that Congress got 22.46% vote share whereas AAP trailed with just 18% vote share.
That was perhaps the time of realizing the wrong strategy. From May 2019. Kejriwal changed his politics differently. It supported the dilution of article 370. It didn’t say any harsh word against Narendra Modi. In fact, it didn’t attack Narendra Modi at all. It started improving its deliverance. It didn’t stand with Shaheen Bagh openly nor oppose CAA, 2019 vociferously. It focused on its promises, and its campaign also focused on development. People of Delhi saw a remarkable change in Arvind Kejriwal’s approach. They find Congress’s situation is precarious and as usual BJP’s weak organization at Delhi and lack of a face. So, they trusted Arvind Kejriwal again because compared to any other leader of Delhi polity, Kejriwal still is much better. Then Shaheen Bagh did a polarization due to which BJP vote share increased but then AAP’s vote share too increased at the cost of Congress as Congress’s vote share reduced to less than 5%.
I don’t think the latest politics by AAP is anything new. Many in social media say that Delhi public sold their votes against freebies. But that’s not true. In India, there is a sizable people who can’t afford their day to day life struggle or can wait for long so that Indian economic improvement will bail them out. The poor section always needs a day to day tangible reliefs. Some units of free electricity, free water and a free ride to women can’t be considered as freebies. These are the necessary welfare measure by any government. Many such schemes were running by the Shivraj Singh government at MP, Raman Singh Government in Chhattisgarh, Navin Patnaik in Odisha or Jayalalithaa government in Tamil Nadu. Many other governments also provide cheap food, cycles to girls for education and such other things which are not freebies. Even Narendra Modi providing the free gas connection is another example of a welfare initiative.
The above is how AAP won the election. What this election gives the message to AAP? Well, it’s simple. The public reposed faith on him to focus on various issues of Delhi such as pollution, sanitation, communication, and such other issues. There’s some improvement in education and health but not enough is done. Thus, Kejriwal must focus on such things. Another lesson Kejriwal must learn that it can’t afford enmity with central government especially in Delhi like half state. He should learn from Navin Patnaik, KCR and Jagan Mohan of YSRCP how to get the most assistance from the central government for own state. If you fight, you will make your state suffer.
The next test for Arvind Kejriwal is in 2022 when MCD elections will happen. We all are hopeful that this time he will transform Delhi.
