In Punjab,
Congress got more than two-third seats. It's good news for Captain Amarinder
Singh who prior to the elections had already declared that these would be his
last elections.
One of my friends
immediately called me over the phone and said that Congress should get some
solace in the fact that it won over BJP in clear terms in at least one state.
My answer was, since when was the BJP a player in Punjab? After all, the party
is just a minor entity in Punjab politics. I would also not agree that
Congress defeated Akalis because after 10 years of anti-incumbency SAD was
ready to lose this election.
So, whom did the Congress
really defeat? Definitely, it defeated the debutante Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) for
which Congress should thank the SAD-BJP coalition. But how and why? Let's do an
analysis to know what happened in 2017 Punjab Assembly elections, a state where electoral
mathematics is very complex and a bit strange as vote share is not necessarily
directly proportional to the seats won.
In my of my
articles published in various platforms I have clearly mentioned how strange
the electoral mathematics of Punjab is. In 2014, Congress got around 33.1 per
cent vote share where as it got least number of MP seats (3). AAP got 30.4 per
cent vote share and got 4 MP seats. SAD-BJP got 29 per cent votes yet got
highest number of MP seats (6).
Thus, to beat this
complicated mathematics, Congress had to get at least five per cent more votes
and AAP should have fell behind SAD-BJP's vote share. The exit polls showed
otherwise. They put the vote shares of AAP and Congress almost equal while
putting SAD-BJP's vote share at less than 10 per cent allowing it to have just
4-7 seats. Had the exit polls been right then it would have led to the
formation of a government in the state under AAP.
But in reality,
Congress did get a vote share of 38.4 per cent which is exactly 5 per cent more
than what they got in 2014. Also SAD-BJP got 30.7 per cent votes, an increase
of 1.7 per cent votes from 2014 vote share, thus making AAP get 23.7 per cent
votes which is 6.7 per cent less than their 2014 vote share. (source: http://eciresults.nic.in/)
That means that
these 2017 Punjab Assembly elections were a direct contest between Congress and
the Aam Aadmi Party. Had the SAD-BJP combine put up a poorer performance then
AAP could have formed the next government there. Isn't the present electoral
mathematics of the state too strange if you go by the seats won vis-a-vis the
vote share? But that's what Punjab's politics is all about.
What are the
takeaways for different political parties post the results?
For Congress it
should be a learning lesson that in future elections it should trust more of
regional leaders than depending on Central leaders. Rahul Gandhi shouldn't
feature in any election campaign. They need to allow growth of local leaders.
Congress could never have won Punjab had Captain Amarinder Singh not been made
in-charge. Rahul Gandhi many a times wanted to remove Amarinder Singh, but it
was Sonia Gandhi who didn't accept Rahul Gandhi's proposal.
For BJP, I think
there is nothing in this election. Some would be thinking that BJP should have
contested independently abandoning the coalition with SAD. But I think the top
leadership made a good decision of not ditching SAD because it shouldn't dump
long time allies in states where it doesn't have that much organisational structure.
For Akalis also it
wasn't that bad an election as they got around 25.3 per cent votes (BJP – 5.3
per cent). They should now wait for 2022 to get back to power.
But there's a
learning lesson for AAP. You just can't ditch Delhi and
camp at Punjab. The Congress will haunt back AAP in the upcoming MCD elections
in Delhi scheduled
on April 22 this year. A defeat in MCD could lead to end of story for Arvind
Kejriwal. His ambitions are good and high, but that doesn't mean you should
ignore your roots. AAP's roots lie in Delhi and its neglect of the capital city
could spell doom for the party.
Finally, I would
say that there is a drastic change in power politics post these five state
Assembly elections which will be visible very brightly. But in the meantime
Captain Amarinder Singh need to send a big ‘Thank you’ card to Akali dal.
